Tourism Booms, Island Peripheries, and the Structural Limits of Migration Mitigation: A Comparative Study of Youth Out-Migration from Sicily (Italy) and Jeju (South Korea), 2011–2024

Abstract

This study examines youth out-migration from two tourism-dependent island peripheries—Sicily, Italy, and Jeju, South Korea—over the period 2011–2024, advancing the graduate-tourism mismatch hypothesis: tourism booms temporarily attenuate youth out-migration by generating short-run employment, but structurally fail to reverse it because tourism-sector employment is seasonal, low-wage, and skill-mismatched relative to a rising graduate population. Drawing on push-pull theory, island studies literature, and human-capital migration theory, the study proposes tourism-cycle phase as a temporal moderating variable within classical migration theory. Official data from ISTAT, KOSTAT, the Bank of Korea Jeju Branch, CNEL, and the Seoul Metropolitan Government are analysed comparatively. Sicily lost approximately 163,000 residents aged 18–34 between 2011 and 2024 (human-capital loss: €16.7 billion; CNEL, 2025) and contributed 24.1% of all Mezzogiorno-to-Centro-Nord internal transfers in 2023–2024 (?58,000 of 241,000; ISTAT, 2025b). Jeju’s net inflow peaked at 14,632 in 2016 before reversing to net youth out-migration of ?2,158 in 2024, with the 20–24 cohort accounting for approximately 70% of departures. The study formalises tourism-cycle phase as a temporal moderating variable and draws policy implications centred on graduate-quality employment creation and circular mobility facilitation.

Received: 19 May 2026 / Accepted: 30 June  2026 / Published: July 2026