Tax Management and Domestic Resource Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Big Data and Econometric Analysis of Revenue Efficiency, Compliance, and Digital Tax Systems (2000–2025)

Abstract

Taxation continues to be the cornerstone?of state capacity and development financing and yet Sub-Saharan Africa persistently displays scant tax-to-GDP ratios at around 16.8%, underpinned by informality, poor governance, and meagre administrative capacity. Governments, for their part, have responded with new digital tax systems?– e-filing, e-invoicing, mobile payments, Big Data analytics – with varying degrees of success fiscal outcomes-wise. This paper investigates the impact of digital tax adoption, governance quality, informality, mobile money penetration, and Big Data on?tax performance in 38 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2025. Based on data from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, OECD/ATAF, GSMA, and national revenue authorities, this study employs panel econometric analysis, along with cross-tabulation and correlation analysis, and applies?machine learning techniques. The results indicate that digital tax adoption (? = 0.142, p < 0.01), quality of governance (? = 0.210, p < 0.01), mobile money penetration (? = 0.097, p < 0.05), and Big Data integration (? = 0.165, p < 0.01) contribute positively and significantly to tax performance, while informality has a strong negative impact (? = -0.318, p < 0.01). Results from machine learning suggest advanced digital tax systems reduce tax gaps by 30–40%, while cross-tabulation show a strong relation between digitalization and revenue outcomes (p < 0.001). This article develops a Digital Tax Governance Model and argues that the state of tax performance results from the interplay between digital systems, governance, and structural economic factors, which underscores the importance of cohesive fiscal and digital?transformation in Sub-Saharan African.

Received:  20 July  2026 / Accepted: 31 August 2026 / Published: September 2026