The Drought-Migration Nexus: Implications for Socio-Ecological Conflicts in Nigeria

Abstract

In Nigeria, the droughts in 1972 – 1975 and floods since 1988 marked the incidence of climate change. This study evaluates the linkages between drought-desertification causative climatic variables over time, the consequent migration caused by the climatic variations and socio-ecological conflicts in Nigeria. Climate data was obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency and analyzed with the correlation and regression models. The data on conflicts was obtained from the National Emergency Management Agency and the public media The results of correlation analysis are; between cumulative number of conflicts and temperature (0.974), moisture balance (-0.838), time (0.735), and annual total rainfall(-0.918). The regression results also indicated from the direction and sizes of the coefficients that the reversal and rejuvenation of the damaged ecosystem if left to occur naturally will take a very long time. The ethical dimension of socio-ecological conflicts was appraised. Finally, suggestions for mitigating socio-ecological conflicts such as the need for advocacy and attitude re-orientation of the largely uneducated, poor and ignorant rural dwellers were made.

DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n2s1p470